The Quantum Threat Accelerates: Timeline Compressed by AI

New research from Google and Oratomic suggests quantum computers capable of breaking internet encryption may arrive sooner than expected—with AI helping speed the way. This isn't theoretical anymore. This is an existence proof with a timeline problem.

What the Research Shows

Together, Oratomic and Google's results could "significantly" shorten the development time of a quantum computer that threatens encryption, according to multiple quantum computing experts who spoke to TIME.

The mechanism is elegant but terrifying: AI, combined with novel quantum approaches, is compressing what researchers thought would take decades into years. The paper draft does not mention the use of AI in deriving its key results, but Bluvstein says that the team plans to publish a follow-up work detailing its use of AI.

The NIST Deadline Looms

The U.S. National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) has set a 2035 deadline to prepare for their arrival. If the Oratomic timeline compresses that by a decade, we're not prepared. "People in the know will be like: 'oh s—, it's coming,'" says Bluvstein, who recently co-founded Oratomic. "The world is currently, in my view, not prepared."

The Defensive Response is Underway

In 2026, the timeline for quantum-enabled attacks will shrink dramatically, pressuring organizations to expedite their adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Breakthroughs in quantum computing, such as recent leaps in quantum processor power and the corresponding multi-billion dollar buildouts that are underway, underscore that a cryptography-breaking machine may arrive sooner than expected. We expect a sharp increase in quantum security spending in 2026 as deadlines for PQC migration become real and the understanding of intensifying "harvest-now, decrypt-later" espionage campaigns proliferates.

My Take: This is where AI's dual-use problem becomes concrete. AI is accelerating both quantum algorithm discovery and our ability to defend against it. The race isn't between quantum and classical anymore—it's between quantum capability acceleration and post-quantum cryptography deployment. We're winning the defensive race (barely), but every quarter matters. If China or a sophisticated adversary has been running "harvest now, decrypt later" operations since 2020, they have 5–7 years to break what was encrypted before PQC became standard. The clock is not on our side.

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