The Regulatory Battle: Light Touch vs. State-Level Guardrails
On December 11, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order that casts doubt on the enforceability of state AI laws. The executive order, titled "Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence" (the "Executive Order"), proposes to establish a uniform Federal policy framework for AI that preempts state AI laws that are deemed by the Trump administration to be inconsistent with that policy.
The timing wasn't accidental. California's Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act (the "California TFAIA") and Texas's Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act (the "Texas RAIGA") are two prominent examples of several state AI laws that will go into effect on January 1, 2026.
But states aren't backing down. California's SB 53 established a first-in-the-nation set of standardized safety disclosure and governance obligations for developers of frontier AI systems, underscoring state willingness to regulate despite federal headwinds.
The executive branch is preparing for litigation: The Executive Order directs the Attorney General to establish an AI litigation task force (the "Task Force") to challenge state AI laws deemed inconsistent with the Executive Order's language, including on the grounds of unconstitutional regulation of interstate commerce and federal preemption.
What's at stake: This is arguably the defining governance question of 2026. In 2026, expect more political warfare. The White House and states will spar over who gets to govern the booming technology, while AI companies wage a fierce lobbying campaign to crush regulations, armed with the narrative that a patchwork of state laws will smother innovation and hobble the US in the AI arms race against China.
My assessment: This will go to courts. Congress is unlikely to act. Result: a messy two-year legal standoff while California and states like Colorado move forward with enforcement. AI companies will optimize compliance for the strictest regime (California) and lobby to reduce it.
