AI Hiring Just Sorted Itself Into Winners and Losers
Business Insider reported that H-1B filings from major tech companies, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, fell sharply in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. The decline reflects tighter visa rules, higher costs for some petitions, and a weaker hiring environment shaped by layoffs and leaner staffing plans.
But there's a critical exception: Nvidia stood out as an exception, increasing its filings instead of cutting back.
The shift matters because immigration data often reveals where tech is actually placing its long-term bets. When filings span the largest platforms, it suggests that AI-era hiring is becoming more selective, more politically exposed, and possibly more concentrated among companies still expanding aggressively.
What this signals: Nvidia sees AI infrastructure as a growth business. They're hiring to meet demand. Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft see AI as an efficiency play—they're automating roles away faster than they're creating new ones. This divergence matters for the next 3-5 years. Whoever is right about the ROI of AI infrastructure spending will be hiring. Whoever is wrong will be cutting deeper.
My perspective: The market is sorting AI into two narratives: infrastructure-focused (Nvidia = grow) and application-focused (Google, Meta, Amazon = optimize). Visa filings are the economic truth underneath the narratives. Follow the visa lawyers, not the earnings calls.